We are crowdsourcing forecasts about the spread of COVID-19, potential therapeutic interventions and vaccines, and healthcare response metrics.

We are seeking people with relevant knowledge and experience to assist government agencies, NGOs, and companies to make the most informed decisions.

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In this time of extreme uncertainty, we’re leveraging the power of collective intelligence to better understand the implications of this global pandemic and share the results with those who need to make critical decisions.

We are currently focused on the following forecast topics for the U.S.:

Medical interventions and
vaccine developments

Healthcare
response metrics

Local and regional
infection curves

Crowdsourced forecasting is a proven approach to informing strategic decisions with more accurate and earlier insight.

It is complementary to other data collection tools and is especially valuable when circumstances make statistical models unreliable or too complex.

How we will measure accuracy

Like weather forecasters, we will measure the accuracy of our probabilistic forecasts using Brier scores, and a relative point system called Net Brier Points.

Learn more

Additional Reading

Our approach to helping decision makers

Forecasters have already joined us from:

Not an expert, but still want to forecast about COVID-19?

Join the Good Judgment Open

GJ Open is looking for forecasters from the general public to anticipate the major political, economic, and technological events that will shape 2020 and beyond. Sponsors like The Economist, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, and the Mack Institute are asking questions about:

NEW

Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters are also offering their views on a public dashboard with longer-term questions about the outbreak in the U.S. and around the world.

Review the Dashboard

The COVID-19 Impacts Forecasting Project is a partnership between Cultivate Labs and Good Judgment Inc.

Cultivate Labs has over a decade of experience guiding crowdsourced forecasting efforts for governments, research institutions, and private sector organizations around the world. Its technology platform, Cultivate Forecasts, has processed over 10M forecasts for organizations such as AbbVie, General Electric, LG, and the U.S. Intelligence Community.

Good Judgment Inc, the world’s most accurate crowd-sourced forecasting service, emerged from a four-year U.S. government research project led by Professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania. Good Judgment helps public and private-sector clients develop better forecasts to support better decisions. The firm provides custom and subscription forecasts from its global network of Superforecasters, online and in-person forecasting training, and consulting services to help organizations improve their internal forecasting processes.

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