Started Apr 30, 2020 11:41AM UTC   •   Closing Nov 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

How many total positive tests of COVID-19 in the U.S. will the COVID Tracking Project report for the month of October 2020?

The outcome will be determined using data for 1 October through 31 October from the COVID Tracking Project under "Positive."

Name Probability
Less than 1.0 million 0%
Between 1.0 million and 2.5 million, inclusive 78%
More than 2.5 million but less than 4.0 million 8%
Between 4.0 million and 5.5 million, inclusive 12%
More than 5.5 million 2%

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