Started Apr 07, 2020 03:09PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

When will the FDA approve a vaccine for Covid-19 for use in the U.S.?

Challenges

There are no existing FDA-approved vaccines for Covid-19, however there are a number of vaccines being developed (e.g., https://milkeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/Covid19%20Tracker%20NEW3-30-20.pdf?mod=article_inline).

An infographic review of the FDA's drug approval process (pdf): https://www.fda.gov/media/82381/download

"Compassionate use/expanded access" authorizations would not count (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access).

Name Probability
Before 1 January 2021 20%
Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021 22%
Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021 21%
Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 13%
Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021 12%
Not before 1 September 2021 13%

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