Started Apr 07, 2020 04:09PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

When will the FDA approve a novel antiviral drug for COVID-19 for use in the U.S.?

Challenges

This question will be resolved when the FDA approves a novel (new) antiviral drug for Covid-19: fda.gov

An infographic review of the FDA's drug approval process (pdf): https://www.fda.gov/media/82381/download

"Compassionate use/expanded access" authorizations would not count (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access).

Name Probability
Before 1 January 2021 21%
Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021 4%
Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021 6%
Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 5%
Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021 9%
Not before 1 September 2021 55%

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