Question 1 of 4 in U.S. Midwest Region
Started Oct 16, 2020 10:15PM UTC   •   Closing May 31, 2021 09:00PM UTC

In what month will Wisconsin's rolling 7-day positivity rate reach 4.5% or below?

As of October 16th, 2020, the 7-day rolling positivity rate was 10.4% (7-day percent positive by test, total tests by day: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm). The WHO's guidance for governments has stated any positivity rate above 5.0% should equate to more strict limitations on business activity and social movement.

We will use the state's Department of Public Health as our source to judge this question. Decimals will be rounded to the nearest tenth place. For example, if the 7-day rolling positivity percentage (7-day percent positive by test, total tests by day) on a given day is 4.54%, this question would resolve as having occurred, since 4.54% rounded = 4.5%.

 

Name Probability
October 2020 0%
November 2020 0%
December 2020 0%
January 2021 15%
February 2021 35%
March 2021 50%
April 2021 0%
May 2021 or later 0%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username